My book – The Future is Upside Down – covers an array of inter-related topics, like new ways of business ownership, Universal Basic Income, inequality and so on.
But the reason it is exists hinges one a single idea, that capitalism has never had prolonged negative growth (aside from the Great Depression), and capitalism-as-we-know-it is incapable of surviving it. We need a new version.
But who says capitalism cannot survive? Here are some thoughts and opinions:
Capitalism will be mostly OK if we can attain growth from a diminishing population and even fewer people of a working age. Given that most advanced countries are barely getting 1-2% growth with lots of immigration, that seems unlikely. Even the reduction in housing (an important component of GDP) will send us into a recession, based on how we are now.
Or, if increased growth is the solution, what is stopping that level of growth today? Capitalism sure does incentivise it, and lower taxes have barely made a difference.
“[Population decline] just basically sinks the economy for years to come unless there’s a massive increase in productivity,” Gerard Filitti, senior counsel at The Lawfare Project said. “We need more people to keep the economy going.”
“It will slow down if there’s less people spending… If it shrinks by the amount that they’re projecting, then that would result in a massive depression worse than we saw in the thirties.” Apex Trader Funding CEO and Founder Darrell Martin told Fox News.
Wikipedia even has a page devoted to the economic consequences of population decline . It suggests:
- Decline in basic services and infrastructure
- Decline in social welfare
- Decline in military strength
- Decline in innovation
- Deflation and unemployment